It is worth noting that the industrially developed Rostov region suffered more from a break in economic ties with Ukraine.
In this sense, the Krasnodar Territory is inferior; the structure of our export-import operations with this country did not differ either in great diversity or in solid volumes. Thus, data from the Southern Customs Administration show that in 2007 foreign trade operations with Ukraine in the region were carried out for a total amount of $ 394.2 million, in 2009 - by 410 million. The main export item was oil and oil products, as well as electricity. In addition, our neighbors also consumed mineral fertilizers.
Iron imports, tractors, as well as railway and tram cars came from Ukraine.
This not too deep flow gained momentum, and in 2013, exports from the Krasnodar Territory to Ukraine amounted to $ 480 million, however, hydrocarbons still prevailed ($ 356 million). But already in the first two months the flow of oil products from the Southern Federal District to Ukraine has sharply decreased, but it is difficult to say whether this is the sharp exacerbation of the political situation. The neighbors simply have no money to buy fuel and fuel, and this situation developed during the sowing of winter crops last fall and repeats this spring. All this is fraught with major problems for the country as a world exporter of wheat. According to experts, Ukraine will face even more problems if, within the framework of a treaty on European integration, the authorities adopt European technical regulations. At the same time, in spite of the neighboring troubles and troubles, the Russian economists state that as the state of problems grows, the state of Ukrainian dumping decreases.
It is no secret that through the Ukrainian ports a huge flow of so-called gray imports hit Russia, starting from Chinese sanitary ware and ending with counterfeit perfume and alcohol.
For Kuban commodity producers, working with Ukrainian counterparties has never been easy. Typical example: Tikhoretsky machine-building plant works for the railway. Relations with Ukraine for a long time no longer result in significant contracts. “The main problem is the lack of funds for the purchase of equipment,” explains the marketing manager of this company, Kirill Golovanov. “The railway industry of Ukraine is in decline, the rolling stock fleet has decayed so much that huge investments are needed to upgrade it, and they are not just not enough - they are not there at all. In recent years, even spare parts for the maintenance of an outdated fleet are purchased by Ukrzaliznitsa in small quantities. Although the desire to cooperate with us, and the Ukrainian side is. But in a situation of lack of money it is difficult to talk about large orders. ”
But a picture of the field of consumer goods. Kubanfarfor is not only a manufacturer, but also an importer from Ukraine. “In recent years, Ukrainian porcelain has successfully competed with Russian products due to its low price,” says Sergey Musylyan, commercial director of PKF Kubanfarfor. - But in 2013 there were two events that practically finished this industry. The largest Ukrainian plant was closed, producing cheap mugs that were in high demand in Russia. Then the Russian competitors lobbied the decision of the Customs Union to introduce protective duties.
Ukrainians had to urgently change the prescription of the masses, which negatively affected the quality of the goods and caused disruptions in supplies. ” But much more acute for an enterprise is the question of raw materials and materials. “Several significant types of raw materials are being purchased from Ukrainian suppliers, and there is no Russian alternative to the special clay used for the production of earthenware,” said Mr. Musylyan.
In general, the interlocutors of our publication do not see the tragedy in the fact that Ukraine temporarily drops out of the economic cage: we ourselves will successfully deliver wheat for export, especially since our country has grown in excellent ports.
Of course, there are exclusive nuances of the type of irreplaceable china clay, but in general, Ukraine is much more dependent on our gas than we are on its products.
It has not yet caused a sensitive damage to the economy of the country and the region and the notorious sanctions from the United States and the European Union.
Investors quite predictably do not overlook the Krasnodar Territory, having invested more than 1 billion US dollars in its economy over the past year. With the participation of foreign capital, enterprises of the KNAUF, Philip Morris, CLAAS, Nestlé, Bonduel companies were built in the Kuban. It is unlikely that a powerful food and agrotechnical cluster will suddenly stop working “for ideological reasons”. But foreign hoteliers, who shut the doors during the tourist season, are simply impossible to imagine. Therefore, it is possible to agree with the opinion of Ivan Chumakov, director of the investment department of the ALPHA-YUG group of companies, who believes that today's sanctions are formal, their task is to “save face” rather than deal a serious blow to the opponent’s economy. “Moreover, there are not so many areas in the global investment market with acceptable rates of return. At the apogee of the Ukrainian crisis, foreign investment capital left Russia, but already on April 9, 2014, over the week, the inflow of foreign investments in funds specializing in investments in Russia amounted to about $ 164 million, recalls Mr. Chumakov. “Moreover, the sanctions even work on the image of our country, creating an opinion about Russia as a sustainable investment partner that can function stably even with Western sanctions.”
Immediately after the March 16 referendum, the regional authorities launched the “Crimean campaign” in the most serious way. Krayinvestbank, a bank of the regional administration, is already operating in the region. LUKOIL-Yugnefteprodukt, which bought 13 filling stations and one tank farm in the Crimea, identified its interests in the republic. The agrarians of the region evaluate poultry and pig breeding as promising areas for themselves. The latter in the Crimea is developed at the level of personal subsidiary farms, with a good study of the demand Krasnodar market operators could fill this niche.
Fishing looks quite interesting. As the co-founders of Coliseum LLC, Anatoly Lomakin and Dmitry Kolomitsev, who distribute fish products from the Crimea in the Southern Federal District, told us, the catch off the coast of the peninsula is much higher than in the Krasnodar Territory.
At the same time, the quality is good, and the price is reasonable, which allowed the Coliseum, which cooperates with retail chains and large wholesalers, to fully fit into the Russian market. “Crimea traditionally held two thirds of the fish market of Ukraine. Of the 220 thousand tons of fish, 150 thousand were caught in the Crimea, ”says Anatoly Lomakin. “At the same time, own processing in the republic is in decline, the factories lack even auxiliary raw materials for the production of canned food.”
According to businessmen, by investing, you can become a major player in this market, although Russia has traditionally focused on the Far Eastern seas. However, now that customs, double VAT and other delights of foreign jurisdiction have been abolished, the game becomes even more interesting.
It is clear that entrepreneurs see above all the prospects for working in the Russian market - the standard of living and the purchasing power of the inhabitants of the peninsula are now so low that the republic will not be a full-fledged consumer soon. Plus, when the Crimea became part of Russia, the attitude of local businessmen towards their Russian partners becomes cautious.
“Theoretically, everything looks good,” the founders of the “Colosseum” say, “Crimeans get jobs and a new level of salaries, Russian business suppliers, the ability to use the richest natural resources and a potential sales market. However, many local entrepreneurs are afraid that a huge Russian business will come and immediately buy them entirely. ”
And Sergei Musselian tells how the Crimean partners came to him on business: “They got acquainted with our prices and were horrified.”
The horror of horror, but there is another point on which potential competition is already visible.
This is winemaking. Rosstat publishes the following data: in 2013, Russia sold 140 million decalitres of wine production, the share of the Kuban was 19.9 million decalitres. The region collects 50.9% (201 thousand tons) of the total Russian grape volume. In the Crimea, last year 77 thousand tons were collected. In Russia, 6% of Russian-made wines are sold, and Crimean wines are also presented, which are now significantly cheaper due to cost reduction. Who will get this segment?
The new subject of the Federation is very interesting both as a consumer of Kuban grain and as a potential rice-grower.
It is known that this year a number of varieties from the Krasnodar Territory will be tested in the Crimea, plans for expanding a wedge of irrigated agriculture and the creation of rice plantations are being seriously discussed. About 8% of Russian rice is grown in the region, with sufficient profitability, market players could increase their fields at the expense of Crimea.
Of course, a lot depends on whether the Crimea will become a special economic zone and what amount of benefits in this case will be provided to it. But today the republic does not produce enough food even to meet its own needs, and therefore the prospects for the Krasnodar Territory as the nearest neighbor look optimistic.
The collapse of the tourist monopoly
Already today, Crimean health resorts represent a serious competition for resorts in the Krasnodar Territory. And then there is the highest protectionism - state-owned companies will take their clerks to improve their health in the republic, and United Russia has already conducted a patriotic campaign. Of course, the state of the recreational power of the peninsula leaves much to be desired, but already today a harsh struggle has begun for assets under palm trees. There is no doubt that the most attractive pieces will be bought up by Moscow capital.
And we need to think about how to honor with honor the appearance of a competitor.
“Today, the recreational and tourist complex of the Krasnodar Territory is operated inefficiently,” says Ivan Chumakov. - Doubtful service at high prices, illiterate strategies of individual resort towns and villages, unwillingness to reckon with customer requests - all these are monopoly costs, because we are used to the fact that there is simply no alternative to us.
And now there is a change in the structure of supply in the market, the redistribution of market shares. The future depends on which development strategy Crimea will choose for itself. If this is a customer-oriented strategy with the availability of low-cost offers, the Krasnodar Territory will seriously lose in the volume of tourism. We will have to revise our approaches, but this, I believe, is only for the benefit of both business and the consumer. ”
However, today, fairly optimistic estimates of the traffic volume of this season are common among market players, which is explained by the effect of the Olympiad. But Ivan Chumakov proposes not to rest on his laurels, but to use managerial intelligence and break down service stereotypes. This, and not imported expensive technologies, equipment and money, is the key to success.
However, management technology is a profitable business. Quite material factors may limit the expansion of the Kuban business: the post-Olympic recession is observed in everything, and above all in investments. According to Ivan Chumakov, the investment drawdown (absence of large programs) can last from three to five years, and the more dynamic neighbors represented by the Stavropol Territory and the Rostov Region will not wait, “As for Crimea, the optimal strategy now is aggressive seizure,” the expert believes . - But we are completely beyond the teeth. The regional producers do not have investments even for their own projects, what to say about the development of new markets? Most likely, powerful retail chains and other businesses that do not require large investments in the region with a long-term payback will be the first to consolidate in the Crimea.
Political risks have not been canceled. The most promising objects will go to Moscow investors. ”
There is only one answer to this: not everything is measured in money. There is also a lobbying resource.
It seems that the main factor in the struggle for a place under the Crimean sun will be the decision about who will be allowed to bury money in this field of miracles.