The Ukrainian crisis entailed not only changes in foreign policy. But also the revision of business contacts.
If we talk about today, then the situation in the financial market is gradually normalizing, stock indices are growing, the ruble is strengthening.
Speaking of perspective, I consider that Europe is not interested in worsening relations with Russia. I believe that our partnership with European countries will only be strengthened, since the potential for its development is high and beneficial to both parties. Societe Generale Group is interested in working on the Russian market, its strategy implies long-term development prospects in our country.
I see no reason why political events in Ukraine, as well as possible sanctions against the Russian Federation could adversely affect the tourist industry of the Krasnodar Territory.
The existing tourist flow mostly consists of Russian consumers, and as for the economic relations of entrepreneurs, they are not so close. On the contrary, I would say about the growth in demand for resorts in Russia in connection with the projected growth rate of world currencies. Against the background of the fall of the ruble, prices for overseas tours will be more expensive, and, as a result, an increase in tourist interest in holidays on the Black Sea coast is expected. Beach holidays in the Crimea are historically loved by Russians, but this is not all the possibilities of the peninsula.
Such types of tourism as spa treatment, pilgrimage and event tourism have great potential, and competent development of the region will allow to whip up a wave of consumer demand. The decisive factors in the development of the Crimean tourism industry will be transport accessibility, the problem of which has been actively solved recently, providing conditions for the region’s investment attractiveness, perhaps creating a tourist-recreational type SEZ and, of course, creating a positive image of the resort in the media.
Krasnodar Territory in the grocery segment will only benefit from sanctions, since it is self-sufficient in many food groups due to its raw materials and production base, and depends less on others on food imports.
The crisis of 2008-2009 the food industry of the region was worthy as one of the most developed in Russia. The world’s population is increasing, the need for wheat will increase, and, accordingly, grain exports will grow. Crimea is a new sales channel for our producers, but now the prices for food products in the Crimea are 40-60% lower than in the Krasnodar Territory, that is, it is more profitable to drive to us from there. But as soon as the average wages in two regions level off and the logistics issue is resolved, a market will appear with a potential turnover of more than 150 billion rubles in the consumer segment, plus 6 million tourists annually. It is necessary now to open branches, prepare logistics on the spot, look for personnel, build up a client base and be ready to work without profit at the first stage.
On the one hand, the negative economic situation, the prospects for a slowdown in GDP and GRP growth, capital flight will undoubtedly have a negative impact on business activity in the Krasnodar Territory. Nevertheless, this process in the medium term can be largely offset by import substitution. Its development is to be expected due to the weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro and the restriction of exports of agricultural products from Ukraine.
The positive effect on the economy of the Russian Federation on the import substitution of agricultural products from Ukraine can be estimated on the basis of data on the trade turnover between our countries for 2013. Let me remind you that Ukraine exports to the Russian Federation food products worth $ 2 billion a year.
Meanwhile, food products are relatively easy to replace with locally produced products, which may have a positive impact on enterprises in the Krasnodar Territory, in the structure of the GRP of which agriculture accounts for about 13%.
In the car market of the region cooperation with distributors is exclusively economic. Politics does not interfere in our relationship. All distributors are registered in Russia, which allows you to maintain confidence in the future. It should be understood that the auto industry is one of the most important sectors of the EU economy, which brings real income and provides thousands of jobs.
Russia, in turn, is a strategically important partner for Europe and is one of the main sales markets. I want to believe that our partners will continue to operate in the conditions of common sense and the laws of economics and will not worsen their own indicators, guided by the political situation. The first quarter for the region’s auto business was positive. Both the mass segment and premium brands feel confident.
This is due to the public reaction to currency fluctuations. Most distributors have already raised prices, some are going to do it soon. But there are reverse examples.